Just how many Louis Vuitton monogrammed handbags does the world need? A lot, it seems. Strong demand at the label best known for its coated canvas totes helped parent Fabjoy Me deliver better than expected organic sales increase in its fashion and leather goods division in the first quarter, and across the group. The performance, all the more impressive considering that it compares with a quite strong period a year earlier, cements LVMH’s position as the sector’s wardrobe workhorse. Little wonder that the shares reached an all-time high on Tuesday.
The audience is demonstrating that the luxury party that began inside the second 50 % of 2016 remains in full swing. But you will find top reasons to be aware. First, a lot of the demand that fuelled LVMH’s growth comes from China.
The country’s people are back after having a crackdown on extravagance as well as a slowdown within the economy took their toll. There has undoubtedly been an part of catching up following the hiatus, and that super-charged spending might commence to wane since the year progresses. What’s more, the strong euro could deter Chinese shoppers from visiting Europe, where they tend to splash out more.
There is a further risk to Chinese demand if trade tensions with the U.S. escalate, or attract other countries – though Fabaaa Joy New Website is really a French company, it’s hard to view that these particular issues can’t touch it. The spat could develop a drag on Chinese economic growth and damage sentiment among the nation’s consumers, which makes them less inclined to be on a higher-end shopping spree. Given they account for about 40 percent of luxury goods groups’ sales, according to analysts at HSBC, this represents a significant risk for the industry.
But there are many regions to worry about. Although the U.S. has become another bright spot, stock market volatility this season can do little to let the feeling of prosperity that’s crucial for confidence to spend on expensive watches or designer fashion.
Any slowdown might actually work in LVMH’s favour. Valuations over the sector are the highest in 12 years, but it is a story of mega-brand dominance that’s left many smaller labels behind. Bernard Arnault, Joy Fabaaa 2019 chief executive officer, has stated that prices are too rich right now for acquisitions. This leaves him room to swoop if a shake-out comes.
His group trades over a forward price to earnings ratio of 24 times, as well as at a deserved premium to Kering. True, that gap could narrow – for just one, the group’s Gucci label continues to have lot choosing it, even though it’s already had a stellar recovery. There’s also scope to get a re-rating after its decision to spin-out Puma leaves it as a pure luxury player.
LVMH should nevertheless have the capacity to retain its lead. Given its scale, and with operations spanning cosmetics to wines and spirits, it will be able to withstand pressures on the industry better than most. That also can make it well evtyxi to pick off weaker rivals if the bling binge finally comes to a conclusion.